UN WARNS OF INCREASED TERRORIST THREAT IN EUROPE
By Óscar Ruiz / Escudo digital
A UN panel of experts has just produced a report stating that the terrorist threat from al-Qaeda, the Daesh group and its affiliates remains high in conflict zones in Africa and Afghanistan, and threat levels have increased in some regions, including Europe.
The expert group has noted in the 23-page report that the relationship between Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers and al-Qaeda remains close, and other states not named by the UN report that “the high concentration of terrorist groups” in the country is undermining the security situation in the region.
In Afghanistan, the greatest threat remains from Daesh “with its ability to project itself into the region and beyond,” the experts expert in the report to the UN Security Council covering the period from 2023 to December 16. Also in Asia, at the regional level, they noted a succession of attacks in neighboring Iran and Pakistan and threats in Central Asian nations.
However, the panel said that while none of the al-Qaida-affiliated groups have regained the ability to launch long-range operations, they do “harbor global ambitions.” And there have been reports of “covert and calibrated efforts to rebuild these outreach capabilities.”
The Daesh group split from al-Qaida more than a decade ago and attracted followers from around the world. Despite its defeat in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria two years later, the panel says Daesh’s combined strength in the two countries remains between 3,000 and 5,000 fighters. In Iraq, they would be conducting “a low-intensity insurgency with covert terrorist cells” while in Syria attacks have intensified since November, experts said.
The panel confirmed that the three-month delay in appointing a new Daesh leader, Abu Hafs al-Hashemi al-Qurayshy, following the death in combat of his predecessor “is considered indicative of internal difficulties and security challenges for the terrorist group.”
Some of the UN member states have noted that the heavy pressure of counterterrorism operations in Syria and Iraq could raise the possibility that the Islamic State could shift its leadership and “center of gravity” to Africa or Afghanistan, (with Africa being more likely), experts said.
In West Africa and the Sahel, according to the UN report, “violence and threat have again escalated” in conflict zones, raising concerns in the affected countries, but also in their immediate neighbors. The experts also point out that in these countries there is “a deficit in anti-terrorist capabilities”, which groups affiliated with Daesh and al-Qaeda continue to exploit. Moreover, according to the UN report, “The situation is becoming increasingly complex with the confluence of ethnic and regional disputes on the one hand, as well as the agenda and operations of these groups”.
In East Africa, the UN panel explains that the Somali government continues its military offensive against al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda affiliate, but they state that, despite significant losses from airstrikes and military operations, “al-Shabab remains resilient.” It has an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters, and an estimated annual revenue of $100 million, mainly from illegal taxes in the capital Mogadishu and southern Somalia.
However, much has changed following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks in southern Israel, experts said. The Hamas attack left 1,200 people dead, mostly civilians, and also took about 250 people hostage, according to Israeli authorities. In Israel’s ongoing offensive in response in the Gaza Strip, aimed at destroying the Hamas group, more than 27,365 people have already been killed and more than 66,000 wounded, according to official sources who would not distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths.
In this regard, the panel states that “some UN member states are concerned that (Al-Qaida) may exploit the situation to regain relevance and take advantage of popular discontent over the scale of civilian casualties by providing direction and support to those willing to act”, and “are concerned that the renewed narrative may inspire attacks globally”.
THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ISRAEL AND HAMAS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EUROPE
On Europe, the panel exposed that, “formal terrorist threat levels have increased following deadly attacks in late 2023 in France and Belgium, in addition to numerous non-lethal terrorist incidents and arrests in several European countries.”
It seems clear that, unlike the “regular” war between Russia and Ukraine, the war between Israel and Hamas, which is also affecting much of the Middle East, will have an impact on a possible increase in terrorism on the old continent. Whether by lone wolves in support of the Palestinian cause and Hamas, or by taking advantage of the opportunity for the resurgence of al-Qaeda or Daesh, Europe is preparing for a possible increase not only of the threat itself, but also of terrorist actions on European soil.
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This text was originally published in Escudo digital, with whose authorization we reproduce it here.
