FROM THE CARDBOARD CANDIDATE TO THE PRESIDENT OF MEAT AND BLOOD

Daniel Noboa, the calm outsider, the businessman who defines himself as a moderate left, the -until recently- unknown assemblyman of a Bisoño party, the low-profile son of a famous tycoon and politician of the country achieved the improbable, as he himself has acknowledged. He won the presidential elections against Luisa González, the candidate of the most structured political party and with the greatest ambitions of power in Ecuador in the last 15 years: the so-called Revolución Ciudadana, which has not been able to (or has not wanted to) get rid of the tutelage and shadow of the leader Rafael Correa, as loved by some as questioned by others.

The results at the end of the election day of this Sunday, October 15, 2023 indicate that Noboa obtained 52.12% of the valid votes and González 47.88%.

THE GOOD THING

As in the first round, the day of the ballot took place in the middle of a peace that Ecuadorians already wanted to last all year round. The commander of the Police, César Zapata, around noon on Sunday, gave a report about the news of the day that surprised him himself: there were no serious robberies, no shootings, no kidnappings, no hired murders, no bombs, no riots … nothing that feeds the headlines of the news every day in a country plagued by drug trafficking and organized crime.

It was an exemplary peaceful day.

So much so that the defeated did not shout fraud or call on their hosts to demand recounts, nor did the winners call on theirs to defend the votes.

A rare thing in Ecuador (which should not be in any mature democracy): the defeated candidate congratulated the winner and even offered him the majority votes of her party in the Assembly to advance on a consensual path towards better days in the country.

A pacifist speech that even Correa, the politician not at all affable with his political contenders, retweeted it (or whatever it is said now that Twitter is called X). A minimal gesture, certainly, considering that at least until 22:00 on Sunday he did not write any congratulations to Noboa, no call to unity. Nothing. Perhaps you can’t ask for more from those who arrogantly proclaimed that their political project would last 300 years.

The majority of Ecuadorians made their position clear again: they no longer support politicians who create polarization among citizens, they no longer support people who divide to win, who are politically nourished by exacerbating the class struggle, which makes confrontation their way of governing. That doesn’t work anymore. At least not in today’s Ecuador, which understands that it is already too much to have to deal with the fear of dying in the middle of the drug traffickers’ war to have to continue enduring the interested fight of the politicians who take care of their positions and their freedom.

THE BAD THING

The undecided had about 30% of voters before the second round. How did the candidates convince them? It may be that the offers that appeared in the ballot campaign led to the definition of many votes, although none of the most attractive offers that were advertised at this stage of the process were included in the official government plans of the two finalists.

But, it was clear that it was political marketing that defined the winner. It was not the best offer (not even the most demagogic) but the best advertising idea that ended up consolidating a triumph and condemning a defeat. It was not the calm and in-depth analysis of the best proposal or the best profile. It wasn’t the balance of pros and cons. No. None of that. It was an emotional factor that defined the result.

In the last week of the campaign, the Noboa team distributed a cardboard in which his life-size figure was printed throughout Ecuador. A huge photography of him, crossed his arms, in a friendly attitude, dressed informally. People took that element of propaganda for free to their home, to their jobs, to their bedrooms, to their parties, to the beach and to their social networks. People were in charge of viralizing the candidate’s request to vote for him, with humor, with irreverence, with self-confidence and for free. In a creative and risky way, Noboa’s campaign managed to get an incalculable number of promoters of his figure. Insurmountable 

And so, with that more than rational emotional load, many undecided people defined who to vote for, with the results that we already know.

It is not an exclusive matter of Ecuador. Scholars say it: people vote, especially, guided by their emotions. For factors that have no to do with rationality, analysis, meditation. That is the reality of democratic elections. There are already those who say that the day may not be far away when, in order to evaluate the candidates with more awareness and make a smarter, less passionate choice, it is better to take care of the cold analysis of the proposals and the profiles of the candidates for an Artificial Intelligence that is able to examine figures, to calculate the consequences of proposals, to verify data, not to forget facts of the public life of the applicant. Perhaps, then, there will no longer be an imperfect choice and we will move on to a perfection that, certainly, we should not call democracy either: its etymology would no longer be coherent.

THINKING ABOUT ECUADOR

Noboa must govern Ecuador for approximately a year and a half. A country that has become a hostage of drug trafficking, which has penetrated everything and only thinks about expanding. A country that is also hostage to its poor economic situation: a deficit of 5% of GDP, economic growth (1.5%) lower than initially projected for 2023 (2.9%), with a tax collection that will not reach the goals set for this year, with lower oil revenues than planned, with an increase in poverty, no improvements in terms of employment, with a growing debt.

The president-elect has been, so far, pragmatic. He will have to use that quality to focus on no more than four key issues in his short term, issues that, in addition, must be connected. Those can be security, investment, education and the consequences of the El Niño Phenomenon.

Your party will not be the majority in the Assembly. Yes, it will be that of his rival in the second round, who offered his help, but who during the current government of Guillermo Lasso has focused a good part of his actions on finding a way to solve the legal problems of his leaders, some already sentenced for corruption and others in litigation for that type of issues. So your help may be conditioned to these aspects.

Noboa will have very little time, so he must try not to engage in fights with the Assembly but to use, in particular, the laws and presidential powers that he already has at hand to advance as quickly as possible in goals of national interest.

Especially, the new president should take advantage of the pacifist spirit of the majority of Ecuadorians, demonstrated in this election. He must take advantage of the incredible viralization of his image that he achieved with the idea of cardboard with his life-size photo and, in that same spirit, involve the citizen in the changes that are needed. But he has to show that just as he managed to be the successful candidate of the cardboard, he will be able to be the successful president of flesh and blood.

Carlos Mora, an Ecuadorian journalist, is general secretary of EditoRed.

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