IN SPAIN 400,000 JOBS WILL BE LOST DUE TO THE IA IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS
By Anahí Di Santo / Escudo digital
A study by the company Randstad, dedicated to human resources, has calculated that the progressive incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools in Spanish companies could mean the disappearance of 2 million jobs by 2033. The counterpart of this equation is that, in turn, there is the potential for new job opportunities, estimated at 1.61 million jobs, to be generated from the use of this technology. Thus, analysts believe that changes in the labor market could entail the loss of around 400,000 net jobs over the next ten years in Spain.
According to this report, the impact will be different depending on the sector. There will be areas and professions that will experience greater automation and a reduction in the number of employees needed, while others will be more positively affected, with the creation of new roles and jobs.
“With AI we are going to experience a new economic revolution, as it is estimated that globally 18% of work could be more or less affected by automation and global GDP could increase by 7% as a result of the boost to labor productivity,” opines Valentín Bote, director of Randstad Research. And he clarifies that the study is a specific cut, which has not taken into account other variables of important influence in the world of work, such as macroeconomics or geopolitics, as if “the only thing affecting the Spanish labor market in this horizon was the expansion of applications linked to AI,” warns Bote.
Specifically, the effect of AI will be the automation of functions, which it is feared could occur in 9.8% of jobs, this corresponds to 2 million jobs that could disappear. At the same time, 15.9% of current jobs will see their productivity increase, which is more than 3 million jobs.
THE SECTORS THAT WILL BE MOST AFFECTED
According to Randstad Research estimates, the areas that will be most affected by the incorporation of artificial intelligence in Spain are commerce and administrative activities, which will suffer a notorious automation and the consequent loss of jobs, although there will also be new positions. The balance is negative and estimates show that 158,000 and 148,000 jobs will disappear in these sectors over the next decade, respectively.
This is followed by the hospitality and transportation and warehousing sectors, where the total, taking into account the creation of new jobs, also gives a negative balance: almost 113,000 jobs will be lost in the former, and more than 47,000 in the latter.
On the other hand, it is important to note that around 75% of current Spanish jobs, which exceed 15 million, will not be affected by the adoption of artificial intelligence. For example, activities more linked to manual or artisanal work will have a limited impact, such as agriculture, livestock and fishing, associative activities, extractive industries or construction.
Meanwhile, the sectors that will benefit from the incorporation of AI, and will see an increase in the number of jobs, are programming and consulting, telecommunications, media and publishing, and professional, scientific and technical activities.
The incorporation of artificial intelligence in companies is a process that takes time to adapt, and in the case of Spain it is considered to be in an “early adoption phase”. 54.5% of companies say they do not use this type of tool, while the remaining 45.5% do so essentially for data analysis (49.2%), optimization of administrative tasks or process automation (36.1%).
Moreover, in this progress, the size of the company is a fundamental variable: small companies have barely incorporated any AI tool, unlike larger ones, where its use is more widespread.
OTHER FORECASTS
The International Monetary Fund has recently published a study carried out together with researchers from Stanford University, in which they state that AI will profoundly change the world economy in the coming years, and they are encouraged to speak of a “new industrial revolution”.
The report states that the impact of artificial intelligence will reach 40% of global jobs, and, in the case of developed countries, this figure will reach 60% due to the number of jobs oriented to cognitive tasks. Low-skilled jobs, on the other hand, will not be the hardest hit by the AI boom, as was the case at other times in history.
The worrying speculation from the IMF is that this could exacerbate existing global inequalities, because industries linked to these technologies will see their revenues increase.
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This article was originally published in Escudo digital, with whose permission we reproduce it here.
