PORTUGAL SWINGS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LOT TO THE EXTREME RIGHT​

It has been a long night for the two major Portuguese parties. And the results of the votes cast by Portuguese citizens exercising their civic duty from the emigrant constituencies are still to come in, which will allow the distribution of the last four parliamentary mandates (two in Europe and two outside Europe).

But the truth is that it soon became clear who the winner was. The big winner of this Portuguese election night came in third place. It was Chega, a radical right-wing populist party led by André Ventura, in the line of Santiago Abascal, Marine Le Pen, Milei, Trump or Bolsonaro. Its bench quadrupled: from 12 to 48 deputies, more than one million votes, 18% of the total. The ultra formation now clamors to be heard by the PSD, the center-right party that won the elections by 50,000 votes (even without taking into account the votes of emigration) under the leadership of the Democratic Alliance coalition and whose leader, Luís Montenegro, will be asked by the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, to form a government after obtaining 29% of the votes, less than one percentage point above the Socialists, who are leaving power after nine years and the replacement of António Costa by Pedro Nuno Santos.

WHAT ARE THE SCENARIOS FOR GOVERNABILITY?

The victory of AD and Luís Montenegro (79 elected deputies) is fragile, but the leader of the center-right, in his victory speech and responding to journalists’ questions, assumed that he will not make a pact with the ultra-right Ventura. What remains is the possibility of a parliamentary agreement with Iniciativa Liberal (the fourth most voted party), but that still leaves the winning coalition far from the 116 deputies that guarantee a parliamentary majority.

In the opposition, the Socialist Party (77 deputies) will not pass any motion of rejection, but will also demand – as it has already said – that it does not accept a motion of confidence, which will allow Montenegro to start governing without needing the support of the radical Ventura. But when the General State Budget for 2025 (or a rectifying budget this same year) is presented in autumn, the music will be different. But then the Socialists will have to realize whether it makes sense to overthrow a government that has only been in power for a few months and is running a state brimming with liquidity (through the European recovery and resilience plan) and with healthy accounts.

Portugal now has a strong extreme right, whose growth has been nurtured by António Costa, who in recent years has treated Chega as the main opposition party to systematically discredit what was then the second largest party, the PSD. Both ignored Chega’s growth capital among a forgotten electorate, especially in rural areas, whose expectations for a better life have not been met, places where public services do not work, people intoxicated with anti-systemic doctrine. Added to this are young people seduced by Chega’s prominent presence in social networks such as TikTok.

Ventura’s party, which goes from a single deputy to twelve in 2022, now multiplies its presence by four. The worst is feared. In Portuguese politics there is uproar: “our turn has come,” they shout. Because experience shows that they do not know how to express themselves in any other way.

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Ricardo Alexandre, Portuguese journalist, is international editor of TSF radio.

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Read here, the original text in Portuguese.